Advanced Strategies: Card Counting Lesson Four

Wonging
I already mentioned that in an ideal situation, a card counter would not want to play hands when the count was below -3. While it is not always possible to avoid negative decks when card counting, there are situations where you are better off sitting out a few hands or even leaving the table entirely. Any time you avoid playing hands in very negative counts you are doing what's called "wonging out." Wonging can be an extremely useful strategy as it both increases your advantage and decreases your risk. For this next lesson lets go over a few of the most important facts about wonging.

When to wong out.

I love this strategy, and admittedly probably use it too much. Even though wonging helps you avoid situations where the casino has the advantage, it is not always a good idea to "wong". If you left a table every time the count got even a little negative, you would never sit around long enough to play when the count eventually rose. For this reason most counters will wong only when the counts gets below a certain point. Because we are using an unbalanced count, this point will vary depending on how many decks you are playing with. So instead of wonging based on the count, it will be easier to wong based on how much the count has dropped. I would personally suggest wonging out of a shoe if the count has dropped by a total of 6. You may want to stick around a little longer if there are six or eight decks, as well as leave sooner if you are playing with only one or two decks. Always keep in mind that playing in a negative count will only hurt your bankroll.

When to wong in.

The flip side to sitting out when the count goes down is to come into a shoe when the count goes up. This is called "wonging in". Wonging in is not always allowed, especially at two deck tables. This is because the casino knows that if you only came into shoes that had good counts, you would always have an advantage over them.

So when should you wong in? Well again it changes a little based on the number of decks. If you are playing at a two or four deck shoe, it will usually be worth it to come in at a count of zero. At this point you have a solid advantage and there is a much better chance that the count will increase to significant levels. If you are playing on a 6 or 8 deck shoe, you can come in at counts as low as -4. Again this will put you in a good position if the count skyrockets, and allow you to avoid playing lots of minimum bet hands.

The downside to wonging in is that there is only about a 25% chance that a shoe will be significantly positive. This means you could sit and watch four or five shoes before playing a hand. While this can be boring, it is the ideal way to play and will lead to higher profit.

Now that you have heard of concepts like wonging, lets take a look at situations that do not affect your counting. Apply your knowledge form this chapter to use these misconceptions to your advantage.

Heat When Card Counting

In counting circles, getting suspicion from the pit boss or camera surveillance is called "heat". Sometimes you may notice heat before it escalates into action, but sometimes this just is not possible. In this section we will talk about the methods casino's use to catch counters and the ways you can avoid these measures to play as much as possible. One thought to keep in mind when discussing heat is that casinos loose a lot more from mistakenly throwing out people who are not counting. For this reason they will often not approach you unless they are certain you are hiding something.

Pit bosses

Pit bosses have a lot to deal with (no pun intended) and are not actively trying to catch counters. They may know what counting is, but probably will not know a counting system. Unless a situation is extremely odd, a pit boss will not be the one that makes the decision to confront a counter. The one thing that pit boss can do is to alert the surveillance room. Pit bosses are told to look for specific circumstances and notify surveillance if they occur. These circumstances would include the following. Someone (usually a young male) who seems to be betting much higher than their appearance would suggest. Someone who has been consistently betting the minimum and then spiking their bet, only to lower it again soon after. Someone who is paying far to much attention to the cards on the table (looking over the table multiple times each hand). In the rare case that the pit boss actually calls up to the surveillance room, you can bet that they will be following you like a hawk.

Surveillance rooms

Most of the focus of casino blackjack surveillance is not actually centered on finding card counters. For the most part they are watching the dealers. One corrupt dealer could cost the casino much more then any counter would, and they know this. That being said, there are still times where surveillance staff will be watching the tables for counters. How they try to catch counters usually runs along these lines: They will pick a table, either at random or because they have a suspicion. They will count down the table using Hi-Low and as they count it down surveillance staff will watch to see if any players appear to be "betting with the count". Of course it is possible that a non-counter will happen to raise and lower their bet with the count, so they won't take action after only one shoe. However, if they find you following the count once, they will continue to monitor you. If after several shoes you have continued to follow the count, casino surveillance can take one of several actions.

In the worst case scenario a surveillance manager will come directly down to your table and ask you to stop playing blackjack. If this happens the best course of action is to be polite and leave immediately. If they do not want to kick you out, they may take a more casual approach. This can include sending the pit boss over to talk to you, telling the dealer to start dealing faster, or both. By doing this they are hoping to throw you off the count and thus remove your advantage. If you think this might be happening to you I would again advise you to leave immediately. If you are able to keep up with their distractions they will only continue to put pressure on you until you can not count or are told to leave.

In most modern casinos, once they think you are a counter they will probably upload your face into a facial recognition system. These systems are not perfect, but they can be very pesky. In my time playing I have sometimes been able to disguise myself well enough to dodge these systems, but I've also failed a few times as well. If the casino finds you are counting after being asked to leave they will almost certainly forcibly remove you from the casino. This does not mean you will lose any of your chips, but it will pretty much guarantee that any dealer or bit boss at the casino will have a good look at you and remember you as a counter.

Methods to avoid suspicion when counting cards

There are a lot of different methods counters have come up with over the years to dodge heat. The first and most effective method is to only play short sessions. If you only play for about half an hour at a time, the chance that surveillance will even count down your table is extremely small. If they do they will most likely only see you bet with the count for part of a shoe and will not have enough evidence to take action. Pit bosses and dealers are also less likely to recognize you if you play for short periods of time, which helps a lot when using disguises later.

The second most important move you can do to avoid heat is called pocketing. As you might have guessed, pocketing is the act of moving chips from the table to your pockets without anyone noticing. The reasons for this are simple. If you have less chips on the table, everyone from the dealer to the camera crew will think you've either won less or lost more. Nothing is more suspicious to a pit boss then someone with a thousand dollars on the table betting the ten dollar minimum.

Pocketing takes some time to master, but I will let you in on a little trade secret. Say you have a stack ten green chips ($250), if you take your hand and place it on top of the entire stack, you can lift one or two chips off the top with your palm. You can then casually move your hand under the table and transfer the chips into your pocket. If done well, it is basically impossible for anyone to notice this movement and over time it can make your stacks look a lot smaller then they actually are.

One note of caution, if you pocket too much you may not have enough chips on the table to double or split when you need to. If this happens, do not reach into your pocket to grab more chips. You do not want anyone knowing you have been pocketing. Instead, just whip out your wallet and put down some more bills. Not only will this prevent people form knowing you are pocketing, but it will make you look like a gambler who has run out of chips and needs to buy in for more.

Another way to avoid suspicion is to use play variations. Dealers and pit bosses almost never know correct basic strategy, so play variations wont help here, but to surveillance staff who probably know basic strategy, these play variations will make you look like you do not know what you are doing. Another step we've talked about earlier is to wong out. In some situations wonging can be suspicious, but most of the time wonging out will help. If you've just won a couple max bet hands, but the count dropped, it is much less suspicious to leave the table then it is to stay and min bet for the next ten minutes.

One final way to avoid heat is automatically built into the Red Zen system. Imagine that a lot of black twos and sevens come out. For the surveillance staff counting Hi-Low the count has just increased, but you are still betting the same amount. Or imagine the opposite situation where an unusual amount of red twos and sevens come out. The count could very well have gone down for the surveillance staff (if some tens come out as well) but for you the count is still about the same. No matter how the situation plays out, if you are using Red Zen, it is unlikely that the Hi-Low count will match with your count. This will add a significant amount of doubt to anyone trying to catch counters. Remember, the last thing they want to do is kick out real gamblers, so any doubt you can cast will go a long way.

Card Counting: Heat vs Attention.

Heat is a negative form of casino attention, but this does not mean all forms of attention are heat. Often it is best to go for one of two disguises. Either try and stay as low on the radar as possible, or actively cause pit bosses and dealers to pay positive attention to you. In the case of card counting, positive attention is basically anything that makes casino staff think you are a "rich idiot". This can range from casually stating incorrect blackjack "facts" to acting extremely upset at the way your game is going. Do not take it so far that you harass the casino staff, but by all means make them feel a bit uncomfortable.

Before going to the casino, learn more about card counting. Everything a card counter needs is in the book Modern Card Counting: Modern Card Counting. This ebook includes lessons on everything from basic strategy to using mathematical formula to estimate your profit and expected risk.

View the original article here

Read More

Systems and Practice: Card Counting Lesson Three

Hi Low card Counting Values

Hi Low is the simplest card counting system that will guarantee an advantage. These are the numerical values asigned to each card in Hi-Low:

Hi-Low 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10,J,Q,K A

+1 +1 +1 +1 +1 0 0 0 -1 -1

Card Counting Practice

Now that you know what the count values are, you must learn to keep track without thinking. This is how you will practice. First, find a deck of cards. Take three cards off of the top of the deck and place them face down without looking. Now, pick up two cards from the deck and look at them. Starting at negative four add or subtract the total value of those two cards and set them down in a separate pile. For example, if the first two cards you look at are a six (worth 2) and a jack (worth -2) then you would add zero to your starting count of negative four. Continue looking through the deck, two cards at a time, until you have gone through the entire deck. Take your time and make sure you count every card. Once you are through the deck and have a final count, look at the last three cards. Including the last three cards, did you end at a count of zero? If so then you just counted down the deck perfectly.

Continue to do this, increasing in speed. Once you can get through every deck in 25 seconds without a mistake, add another deck. If you can get through two decks in under a minute you should be in fighting shape (with two decks start the count at negative eight). It is absolutely necessary that you be able to count this well and this quickly. Speed and accuracy are the foundation of counting and any mistakes here will cost you money.

Some may find it helpful to run simulations once they feel confident in their ability to add and subtract the different card values quickly. There are several free simulation programs online, none of which require giving out your email or personal information. Not only will software allow you to get through more hands than physical simulations, but it can also inform you when you make a mistake in basic strategy. If you do not want to use software then you can always deal out cards to yourself, but you must make sure that you deal out the cards in the same order as a casino dealer.

Card Counting At The Casino

The dealer (or you if you are running a simulation) will always deal cards out one at a time from their left to their right, ending at dealer. The incorrect way to count is to look at the cards one by one as they are dealt. Instead, wait to look at the other players cards until both cards for each hand are done being dealt. From your right to your left (starting at the first player to act and ending at the last) count all the cards on the table one hand at a time. Once you have counted each hand, look at the dealer's up card. From here start the circle over again. This time, count each of the hit cards one by one as they come out. Finally, once the dealer reveals their hole card (face down card) add that value and the values of any cards the dealer receives for hits.

When the hand is finished you should have an accurate count that includes the values for every card that was dealt during the hand. You will of course use this count as the starting point for the next hand. A counter must also use the count at the end of each round to determine how much to bet on the next round, but that is a topic for much later. See chapter

Let's go through a quick example to make sure the process is clear. Say there is one other person at the table with you and you are playing with two decks. The dealer deals one card to you, one to the other player, and one to themselves. They then start to deal out the second card for each hand. As soon the second card comes out for your hand (the first hand in play) you look down and see a red two and an eight. Because it is two decks you will start the count at negative eight (the reason for this will be addressed on the next page) Red twos are worth plus two (2) and eights are worth zero (0), giving the hand a total value of two (2 + 0 = 2). This means the count is now at negative six (-8 + 2 = -6). You then look to the other players hand. They have a six and a five. What is the count now? You should come up with a count of negative two (-6 + 4 = -2). Continue this process in the order explained above, until all of the cards have been counted.

Tip: In your head, instead of saying "negative three" just say "n three". This may not seem like a big deal, but it will allow you to count faster and with more accuracy.

Balanced vs Unbalanced

If you have counted before, or have a very keen eye, you will notice that there is a small difference between Red Zen and counts like Hi-Low. If you count all the way through a deck in Hi-Low, you will end on a count of zero. This is called a Balanced count. Balanced counts were the first counts developed. They have a few advantages and many disadvantages.

Balanced counts

An advantage of a balanced count is that it is sometimes more accurate. This is because with balanced counts you can find what is called the "true count". Don't let the term confuse you, a true count is just what we call dividing the count by the number of remaining decks. One can only do this in a balanced count because the number of decks does not affect the count.

The disadvantages of balanced counts lie in the fact that counters must always use the true count. This creates an entire calculation the counter must preform every time there is a betting or playing decision. The difficulty only increases as the number of decks increase. At two decks this will be difficult (quick what is a count of 7 divided by the 1.3 decks left?), at six decks the task is nearly impossible. The small advantage one gains from a true count is worthless if they can not keep a perfect count. Luckily, with advances in computer counting simulations we are now able to test the exciting, counter intuitive, unbalanced counts.

Unbalanced counts

If you add up the numbers in a count and you get something other than zero, that count is said to be unbalanced. These systems have been gaining huge popularity in part because of their ease and in part because computer simulations have shown that they are amazingly accurate.

To account for the fact that the count is unbalanced, all a counter must do is start the count at the difference. In Red Zen, each deck has an extra count of 4. This is why during practice you must remember to add negative four to the starting count for each deck you are using. If you are practicing with two decks, or are playing at a table that uses a two deck shoe, you would have to start the count at -8. At a six deck you would start at -24 (6 x -4). This simple pregame step means that unbalanced counters do not have to worry about a true count. As a player who has tried balanced systems with great success, I have nevertheless switched permanently to using unbalanced counts. If you are interested I encourage you to learn more about the advantage of unbalanced counts and card counting in general.

In a balanced count you would want to bet whenever the count was positive. In an unbalanced count where each deck is off by four, one will actually have a small advantage at about negative three regardless of how many decks are being used. This is when you will want to start increasing your bet. The difference is, instead of having to do a calculation every single hand to find the true count, unbalanced counters only have to do some simple multiplication before the game begins.

To learn more about card counting and the mathematical formulas involved, check out Modern Card Counting here: Counting Cards eBooks

View the original article here

Read More